In 2007, I walked away from an industry I knew inside and out. I had the relationships, the expertise, and momentum such that everything looked perfect on paper. But I did a simple analysis that made me decide to carve a new path…
The analysis used one of the strategy tools that we teach biz school students. While most suitably applied in a large corporate setting, they may have their place in the small business arena as well. The art is in knowing when to use which tool!
Small business owners often make critical decisions about expansion without understanding the deeper forces that determine success and profitability in that space. Michael Porter’s Five Forces framework is a tool that any firm can use to assess the attractiveness (long-term prospects of profitability) of an industry.
A five forces analysis is used mostly to inform decisions about market entry. It looks at the complete competitive landscape, not just your direct rivals, to reveal hidden threats and opportunities.
Porter’s Five Forces
Developed by Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter in 1979, the Five Forces framework identifies five factors that determine whether an industry is attractive (profitable) or unattractive (difficult to make money in). Briefly, they are:- Competitive Rivalry – How intense is the competition among existing players?
- Supplier Power – How much leverage do your suppliers have over pricing and terms?
- Buyer Power – How much can customers demand lower prices or better service?
- Threat of New Entrants – What barriers exist and how easy is it for new competitors to enter your market?
- Threat of Substitutes – How “sticky” are customers and what alternative products or services could replace yours?
A Real-World Decision Using Five Forces Analysis
In 2007, I faced a crossroads. My brother and I had spent ten years building a successful value-added reseller business in the wireless infrastructure space. We sold wireless equipment and installation/testing gear to telecommunications companies. When I left the company, I had a choice: start fresh in the same industry with the same customers and suppliers, or walk away entirely and do something else. On paper, it looked like the easy thing to do. I walked through an informal Five Forces analysis in my head. I never wrote it down, but I absolutely walked through the five forces like I’m going to do with you here:Competitive Rivalry
Here we normally look at the number of competitors, how different their product offerings are, and how fast the industry is growing. If the pie is shrinking we will have to all duke it out for that diminishing pie. But if we all have different products, or the industry is growing really fast, we don’t need to worry much about one another. Want to follow along? Grab the Five Forces Worksheet and assess your industry as you read. In my case there were only a handful of direct competitors, who mostly got along. But it was a tiny industry with only four major customers and a bunch of small ones. We all served the same customers, and the real basis of competition was having an exclusive contract with one of the more well-known product lines. Add to that the fact that we all chased business from the same three large Canadian telcos, and that we were entering a brutal recession with zero growth prospects. Overall, this force was negative.Supplier Power
Supplier and buyer power normally come down the relative size and number. When there are a large number of small suppliers, none of them have much power. A concentrated supplier base with larger players will have more power. Brand power and switching costs might also be relevant factors. As stated, we competed for the “good” lines, so our suppliers had a huge amount of power. They were massive corporations (billions in revenue) with brand names that our customers demanded. You served at the pleasure of your supplier with a 30-day termination clause. This one was strongly negative.Buyer Power
It’s relative size and number again. Buyer and supplier power are two sides of the same coin. The textbooks tell you to look at customer concentration, volume of purchases, switching costs, and price sensitivity, but I’ve yet to encounter a situation where it wasn’t dominated by just how many and how big the buyers are. When there are many, individually, they have no bargaining power. Our company had three customers that mattered. Their volumes were significant to us, and while they had some switching costs it wasn’t out of the question. They negotiated aggressively and had alternatives. Their power was indisputable. Strongly negative.Threat of New Entrants
In general, the easier it is for a new company to enter an industry, the more negative we view an industry, all other things being equal. It’s mostly about “barriers to entry”. Think about a barbershop. There are limited capital requirements, no real benefits to be derived from economies of scale, easy access to necessary suppliers, no significant regulatory barriers, limited customer brand loyalty. This points to very low barriers. My business didn’t have large capital requirements either, but you need established relationships with either suppliers OR customers (preferably both). Newcomers can’t just waltz in and steal business. The barriers were relationship-based, not financial, and take years to build. This force was positive.Threat of Substitutes
A substitute service or product is one that serves the same need as yours but in a fundamentally different way. Orange juice is a substitute for bottled water or ginger ale, not a competitor. We’d usually look at the price-performance trade-off and how easy it is to switch between the alternatives when examining this force.
While at the product level there are always substitutes, at the level of our firm, there really wasn’t another way for our customers and our suppliers to meet.
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The world is full of middlemen, and we were one. At the time, anyway, there wasn’t a realistic alternative, so no immediate threat, but also no advantage. This threat was neutral.
The Bottom Line
The scorecard didn’t favour this industry. My one advantage stemmed from already being in the industry, so it wasn’t really an industry force per se. The rest was at best neutral.- Three forces: Strongly negative or negative
- One force: Positive
- One force: Neutral
What’s in this for ME?
It’s probably in every small business owner’s interest to do a similar analysis to mine, just so you know where you stand. But where this is really helpful is where you’re thinking about expanding your business into a new industry, or even new markets within your current industry. Ask these questions to yourself, then for each force, make an assessment as to where it lies on the continuum between strongly negative and strongly positive.Competitive Rivalry
- How many direct competitors do I have in my market?
- Are our products/services truly differentiated, or are we all selling basically the same thing?
- Is the industry growing, flat, or shrinking?
- What are the primary bases of competition? (location, price, quality, service, innovation)
- Are there high fixed costs that force competitors to fight for volume?
Supplier Power
- How many alternative suppliers could I use?
- How critical are my suppliers’ products to my business?
- Could my suppliers easily sell direct to my customers?
- What are my switching costs if I change suppliers?
- Do my suppliers have much more market power than I do?
Buyer Power
- How concentrated are my customers? (Do a few accounts make up the majority of the revenue? Are any over 20% of the total?)
- How price-sensitive are they?
- How easy is it for them to switch to competitors?
- Do they have good information about costs and alternatives?
- Could they do what I do themselves (backward integration)?
Threat of New Entrants
- How much capital does it take to start competing in my space?
- Do I have advantages from scale, proprietary technology, or brand?
- Are there regulatory requirements that protect me?
- How hard is it to access customers or distribution channels?
- Do customers have loyalty to established players?
Threat of Substitutes
- What other solutions could address my customers’ underlying need?
- Are there emerging technologies that could replace what I offer?
- What’s the price-performance trade-off of substitutes vs. my offering?
- How willing are customers to switch to alternatives?
Create Your Scorecard
Once you have rated each force, assess the overall attractiveness of the industry. If you score mostly negative forces, seriously reconsider entering this market unless you have a specific, defensible advantage. A mixed score is more likely. Here you want to focus your strategy on mitigating the biggest negatives and exploiting the positives. Obviously, if you score mostly positive forces, you’ve found a promising opportunity.Actionable Strategies Based on Your Five Forces Analysis
Here are some ideas to incorporate into your strategy based on what the Porter five forces analysis tells you. If Supplier Power is High:- Diversify your supplier base and reduce dependence
- Develop alternative sources or in-house capabilities
- Build stronger relationships with multiple suppliers
- Create more value for suppliers so they prioritize you
- Form buying groups with other businesses to increase leverage
- Differentiate meaningfully so you’re not just another vendor
- Create switching costs (loyalty programs, integration, specialized knowledge)
- Improve customer experience beyond the product itself
- Serve a broader customer base to reduce concentration risk
- Move up/down market to segments with less buyer power
- Add services that make you stickier
If Competitive Rivalry is Intense:
- Find your niche where you can dominate
- Differentiate on dimensions competitors can’t easily copy
- Build brand equity that commands premium pricing
- Create cost advantages through efficiency or scale
- Focus on customer relationships rather than just transactions
- Consider whether to stay if the industry is fundamentally unattractive
⚠️ When Not To Use It
- You’re already IN the business (too late for entry analysis)
- The industry is in rapid transformation
- You’re making tactical decisions (pricing, marketing)
- You’re comparing yourself to specific competitors
If Threat of New Entrants is High:
- Build barriers through brand, relationships, or proprietary assets
- Create customer switching costs if possible
- Pursue exclusive partnerships with key suppliers or distributors
- Develop specialized expertise that’s hard to replicate
- Build scale advantages that make it hard for small players to compete
- Monitor emerging alternatives constantly
- Innovate proactively rather than reactively
- Emphasize your unique advantages vs. substitutes
- Consider adopting the substitute yourself (if you can’t beat them…)
- Bundle services that substitutes can’t easily replicate
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